The CBO Feels the Love

The Congressional Budget Office isn’t known for its awesome marketing or pithy statements. It’s never been recognized by Buzz Feed for its social media use. Nevertheless, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is enjoying an unusual amount of love on Twitter.

Here’s how you really know they’ve made it: The title of yesterday’s National Review Morning Jolt was, “The Congressional Box Office is Very ‘In’ Right Now.”

Two nights ago, it tweeted a four-word message with a link to its analysis of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) that has received far more attention than is normal for the CBO twitter account. As of writing this post, the tweet in question has racked up 62 responses, 846 retweets, and 542 likes.

That might not sound like a lot; the truth is, it isn’t. Donal Trump’s tweets, for example, often receive tens of thousands of ‘likes.’ But relative to the usual engagement on the CBO’s tweets, it’s absolutely ridiculous.

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Since January first of 2016, the CBO has tweeted 120 times. The median numbers of responses, retweets, and ‘likes’ to those tweets were respectively 0, 3, and 2. In fact, this latest tweet is responsible for nearly half of all the reactions garnered by the CBO’s account over that time period.

So what does this tell us?

The most obvious insight is that people are paying more attention to the CBO since the administration change. That’s not surprising; the CBO evaluates economic and budget proposals, and there are quite a few shakeups going on in that department right about now. The agency has been firing on all cylinders to keep up with demands from Congress, doubling the frequency of its tweets since Trump took office (.48 tweets/day compared with .24 tweets/day during the previous year).

In the final year of Barack Obama’s presidency, the CBO only averaged 9.5 ‘retweets’ per tweet–and that’s including a January 17th tweet that was responsible for 405 retweets alone (if you exclude that post, the account averaged 5 retweets per post). Since the beginning of the Trump administration, that average has jumped to 39.6 (7.6 if you don’t include the latest viral tweet).

Another insight: Negative feelings about the AHCA are driving the CBO’s recent popularity surge. The only two tweets with significant activity in the past year (look at the spikes in the graphs above) were about the AHCA and the effects of repealing the Affordable Care Act (ACA). A cursory glance through the responses to both tweets reveals that most of the commenters are detractors of the current administration who oppose changes to the ACA.

It would be a mistake to use this as a proxy for national consensus on the AHCA, however. Twitter often skews liberal.

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For the record, the CBO writes a killer blog (I use the term loosely, for obvious reasons). It’s a great source of unfiltered information about economic ideas from Washington. You can sign up to receive email updates from it here. And, if the CBO is reading this, don’t forget about us when you get famous.

Stakes is High

In 1996 De La Soul released Stakes is High. The album contains a running theme of concern for the state of hip-hop. In various skits throughout the album, members of the group fret over the decline of industry integrity, as the genre intensified its flirtation with gangster culture. The album feels like a fitting soundtrack to this election.

In 2016 America played its own high-stakes game, electing a president who, throughout the course of his campaign, displayed an alarming illiteracy of or indifference to the United States’ Constitution. Perhaps more unsettling than his ignorance, he often demonstrated a predilection for authoritarian governance, at various times idolizing Saddam Hussein and Vladimir Putin.

How did we get here? It didn’t happen over night. During times of war American presidents have sought—and often obtained—powers that far exceed the intended scope of the office. Foreign (and at times domestic) threats have been used to justify a litany of unilateral actions and circumvent civil liberties since the First World War. The creeping expanse of Executive power is a feature of a nation inured to a perpetual state of war.

The last two presidents were no exception to this pattern. President Bush secretly authorized the National Security Agency to spy on Americans and issued hundreds of signing statements and executive orders, further compromising the balance of checks and balances between the branches of government.

President Obama continued this trend of erosion, sidestepping Congress on immigration, bombing in Libya, funding the Affordable Care Act, and more.

Partisanship contributed to this phenomenon. Instead of taking principled stands against overreach at all times, members of Congress and the American people have preferred to do so only when it meant thwarting the other team. That cheapens what should be a shared concern of imbalanced government.

In a few months we will have to contend with a President Trump who, as of yet, seems unable to demonstrate a hint of restraint. It’s hard to image that he will adhere to a parochial interpretation of the presidency, especially armed with decades of precedent that suggests there’s really no need to do so.

Democrats and Republicans in office should take every step to right the wrongs of the past and contain the power of the president. Citizens, for their part, must come to regard presidential overreach as the danger it really is or risk a further slide toward tyranny. We must all remember that while authoritarianism may be sweet when your side is winning, it can quickly turn bitter. The stakes, as they say, are high.